In line with other rating agencies and economic organisations, Crisil on Friday forecasted 7.1 per cent economic growth in the wake of an excellent monsoon, but warned that the fiscal deficit would overshoot the target besides lower export growth.
Here are the key decisions announced by the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday projected a GDP growth of 7 per cent for 2024-25 financial year, which is lower than the 7.3 per cent expansion estimated for the current fiscal. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said rural demand continues to gather pace, urban consumption remains strong and investment cycle is gaining steam on the back of increased capex.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at around 18.5 per cent with an upward bias in the first quarter of the current financial year, according to SBI research report Ecowrap. This estimate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's GDP growth projection of 21.4 per cent for the April-June quarter. "Based on our 'Nowcasting' model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias)," the report said. Higher growth in Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of a low base.
India is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, but slow income growth, lack of structural change, and rising inequality highlight the gap between progress and real transformation.
India's economic growth slowed to 3.1 per cent in January-March and to an 11-year low of 4.2 per cent for the full fiscal 2019-20 amid a drop in consumption and investment. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stood at 5.7 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018-19, according to data released by National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
'I do believe there will be a resolution in the next couple of months on the penal tariff and hopefully on the reciprocal tariff also.'
Reflecting strong growth sentiment among industry verticals, a CII business outlook survey has found that 74 per cent of the respondents expect the economy to grow by 8 per cent or more in 2010-11.
India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. They expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. The Indian economy, they said, is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is unleashed.
Here's a list of 20 best performing states in terms of GDP.
Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman has presented a forward-looking Budget, reinforcing the government's commitment to 'Reform, Perform, and Transform'.
The Asian Development Bank on Monday projected that Indian economy was poised to grow by 6 per cent this year, marginally better than South Asia's growth of 5.7 per cent.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Crisil Ratings on Wednesday projected India's GDP growth at 6.8 per cent in the next fiscal and said the country will become an upper middle-income nation by 2031 with the economy doubling to $7 trillion. In its India Outlook report, Crisil said the Indian economy will take support from domestic structural reforms and cyclical levers and can retain -- perhaps even improve -- its growth prospects to become the third largest economy by 2031. "After a better-than-expected 7.6 per cent this fiscal, India's real GDP growth will likely moderate to 6.8 per cent in fiscal 2025," said the Crisil India Outlook report.
Indian economy has the potential to grow by 10-15 per cent annually and generate 10 million jobs if it harnesses entrepreneurship, innovation and quality, management guru C K Prahalad said on Monday.
The World Bank on Thursday forecast a 6.7 per cent growth rate for India by next fiscal as exports and private investment are projected to strengthen and provide a boost to growth.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
Indian economy grew by 9.4 per cent in 2006-07 against 9 per cent in the previous year as robust growth in manufacturing and services sector more than made up for a slowdown in agriculture and construction sector.
Subramanian recommended five ways of financing additional expenditure over a period of one year, including cutting expenditure and borrowing directly from the RBI or monetising debt.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
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Indian companies are keenly waiting for reforms on rules related to land acquisition, labour, coal and power sector, and foreign direct investment in insurance sector.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her 8th straight Budget and all eyes will be on the much-expected tax relief for the middle class. Sitharaman had in her first Budget in 2019 replaced the leather briefcase -- which had been in use for decades for carrying Budget documents -- with a traditional 'bahi-khata' wrapped in red cloth.
Economic growth is likely to plummet to a multi-decade low of 1.6 per cent in fiscal year 2020-21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing measures like lockdowns and social distancing, an American brokerage said on Wednesday in one of the bleakest forecasts on GDP yet. Indian policymakers have not been aggressive enough in their response till now to the crisis, and will need to eventually intensify their efforts, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
Overcoming a negative growth in mining sector and a meagre 2 per cent growth in agriculture, the economy continued on its upward trajectory, which was witnessed during the first quarter of the current financial year.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday proposed a G20 initiative aimed at enhancing clean energy transitions by boosting recycling, easing supply chain pressures and advancing joint research on critical minerals, and suggested forging a partnership to make satellite data more accessible and interoperable.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
'...then preparing oneself for the long haul is also essential.' 'Identifying and holding onto values gives you strength to withstand the difficulties enroute.' 'Taking care of your physical, mental, and intellectual well-being gives you the strength to stay the path.'
India's growth rate is expected to improve to 7 per cent by FY 2017, while inflation and current account deficit are likely to moderate in the coming years, a Citigroup report said.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday said India aims for a sustained 9-10 per cent economic growth over the next three decades and sought US investments in technology and infrastructure, where a staggering $1trillion funding was required by 2015.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
In a bid to promote the use of domestic currency for cross-border settlements, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced a slew of measures, including allowing banks to lend in Indian Rupees to non-residents from Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka for bilateral trade.
Attributing the decline to various global and domestic factors, especially poor performance of the manufacturing sector, the chamber called for 'immediate policy intervention' to deal with the situation.
Export-led Indian IT sector is not directly hit by Trump's tariff order on goods, but there could be worrisome indirect bearings on it arising out of possible slowdown in decision-making and GDP growth in America over higher tariffs, which may then cloud demand from specific verticals, according to some analysts.
India's GDP for the January-March quarter, grew by 9.3 per cent, beating market expectations, compared to 8.6 per cent in the year-ago period, mainly on the back of a healthy 5.5 per cent growth in the agriculture sector.
The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
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